The Ontario housing market in 2026 is poised for another year of transition, reshaped by elevated inventory, moderating prices, and renewed buyer interest. After a period of significant price fluctuations and affordability pressures in 2023–2025, expert forecasts suggest 2026 will be neither a dramatic boom nor a sharp crash, but rather a year of stabilization with meaningful implications for buyers, sellers, and investors across the province.
Market Overview: Cooling Prices and Elevated Supply
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that average resale home prices across the province declined in late 2025, with the composite home price around $749,400, down 5.6% year-over-year. Prices for specific property types also saw broad declines: single-family homes down ~5.2%, townhouses down ~7.5%, and condos down ~7.7%. Sales activity showed mixed signals, with monthly sales slightly up but overall annual sales still soft.¹
These figures reflect a market transitioning away from the overheated conditions of recent years toward greater balance between supply and demand.
Average Home Prices by Region in Ontario (Late 2025 / Early 2026)
| City / Region | Average Home Price (CAD) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Ontario (Overall) | ~$800,420 | WOWA, Ontario Housing Market Overview: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
| Greater Toronto Area (GTA) | ~$973,289 | Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB): https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/ |
| City of Toronto | ~$986,542 | WOWA, Toronto Market Data: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
| Mississauga | ~$943,607 | WOWA, Mississauga Housing Prices: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
| Brampton | ~$882,710 | WOWA, Brampton Housing Prices: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
| Hamilton | ~$663,558 | WOWA, Hamilton Housing Prices: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
| Ottawa | ~$658,943 | WOWA, Ottawa Housing Prices: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
| Waterloo Region (Kitchener–Waterloo) | ~$716,911 | WOWA, Waterloo Region Housing Prices: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
| Oshawa | ~$709,605 | WOWA, Oshawa Housing Prices: https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market |
Forecasted Trends for 2026
Price Stability and Regional Variation
Multiple forecasts suggest that Ontario prices will remain under pressure or grow only modestly in 2026, with regional variation playing a major role.
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Some analysts project an overall flat-to-moderate price growth or very limited increases depending on region and property type.²
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Others anticipate continued price declines in core urban centres such as the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where forecast models indicate average prices could drop slightly as inventory remains high and demand patterns shift.³
Taken together, these trends point to a market where price movements will be moderate, localized, and heavily influenced by inventory levels and buyer preferences, rather than broad upward trends driven by scarcity.
Sales Activity and Buyer Opportunities
Forecasts indicate that elevated inventory — coupled with potential interest rate stability — may encourage more housing activity among buyers in 2026.²
Increased choice and more balanced conditions could particularly benefit first-time buyers and buyers interested in commuter and secondary markets outside central Toronto.⁴
This reflects a broader expectation that 2026 will offer greater negotiating power for buyers and more realistic pricing expectations for sellers, especially compared with markets dominated by bidding wars earlier in the decade.
Interest Rates and Affordability
One widely observed driver of market balance is mortgage rate stability. After periods of rapid rate hikes, interest rates have largely plateaued, offering buyers greater predictability in monthly costs and enabling more strategic financial planning.⁴
This stability may help reactivate segments of the market that had remained sidelined due to previous affordability constraints.
Divergent Markets Within Ontario
Ontario’s housing landscape is increasingly understood not as a single monolith, but as a collection of distinct regional markets.
While core urban areas like Toronto and the GTA may see continued price moderation or slight declines, smaller cities and commuter regions such as Hamilton, Burlington, and Barrie could demonstrate more resilience or mild growth, reflecting migration trends and affordability dynamics.⁵
These divergent patterns highlight that location, property type, and local economic conditions will be key determinants of performance in the 2026 market.
Implications for Buyers and Sellers
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Buyers, especially first-time purchasers, are likely to benefit from elevated listings, stable rates, and reduced competitive pressure compared with the frenzy of earlier years.
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Sellers should prioritize realistic pricing, transparent marketing, and readiness to negotiate, as buyers exercise greater leverage in a balanced environment.
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Investors may find opportunities in markets with strong rental fundamentals or long-term growth potential, even amid broader price moderation.
Overall, 2026 appears set to be a year of adjustment for Ontario’s housing market — defined by balanced conditions, regional nuance, and a shift toward sustainable activity rather than speculative growth.
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References
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Ontario housing market 2026 home prices and sales data. (2026). nesto.ca. https://www.nesto.ca/home-buying/ontario-housing-market-outlook/ (nesto.ca)
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Ontario real estate outlook 2026 & what buyers should know. (2025, December 11). Bridge. https://bridge.broker/market-insights/ontario-real-estate-outlook-2026/ (bridge.broker)
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Ontario housing market 2026 forecast – experts and data. (2025). 360Lending.ca. https://www.360lending.ca/blog/ontario-real-estate-market-outlook-2026 (360lending.ca)
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2026 Ontario housing market outlook for homebuyers. (2025, December). Garrysidhu.ca. https://www.garrysidhu.ca/blog/2026-ontario-housing-market-outlook (garrysidhu.ca)
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Ontario housing inventory, prices & regional trends. (2025). Larry-Osmond.c21.ca. https://larry-osmond.c21.ca/01-2026 (larry-osmond.c21.ca)